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Tamil Nadu polls: Is there any space for Vijay's TVK in the duopoly between DMK-AIADMK?

NEW DELHI: Ahead of the Tamil Nadu assembly elections, actor Vijay Thalapathy has positioned himself as an alternative for the people in a state where politics, for a very long time, has revolved around the DMK and the AIADMK.With its ideological differences with the NDA and political tussle with the DMK, TVK has emerged as a third option for Tamil voters by fielding candidates on all 234 seats.So, will the experiment live up to Vijay's expectations? Well, there is a fighting chance.Why Vijay stands a chance in Tamil Nadu pollsOver the years, the contest has essentially been between fronts led by DMK and AIADMK. Since 1967, these two parties have alternated regimes, keeping other parties in their respective alliances.However, the upcoming elections seem to be turning into a trifecta, as a considerable chunk of voters has chosen not to align with either of the Dravidian parties over the years.In the 2016 assembly polls, AIADMK won 134 seats and secured over 40 per cent of the vote. Meanwhile, DMK won 89 seats with a 32.1 per cent vote share. This indicated that nearly 20 per cent of the votes were distributed among other parties, including the BJP and the Left parties.A similar pattern emerged in the 2021 election as well. The AIADMK-BJP alliance secured 39.71 per cent of the vote, while the DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance garnered around 45 per cent.In both elections, roughly one-fifth of the electorate voted for parties outside the two major alliances. These unaligned votes -- roughly translating to 15-20 per cent -- remain crucial for the emergence of a third front.However, this does not mean that this huge chunk of votes will necessarily land in favour of TVK.Will TVK succeed?As part of this strategy, Vijay, in his party's manifesto, announced a slew of populist welfare promises for women.The key assurances include Rs 2,500 per month cash assistance to women heads of families up to 60 years of age, as opposed to the present Rs 1,000 provided to eligible women heads of families who meet certain socio-economic criteria under the Kalaignar Magalir Urimai Thogai (KMUT) scheme.Vijay said women employed with the state and union governments will not be eligible for the assistance.Other schemes include six LPG cylinders free of cost under the 'Annapoorani Super Six Scheme', free bus rides for women in all government buses under the 'Vetri Payanam Scheme', Rs 15,000 per year as assistance to the mother or guardian of children to ensure zero dropouts in schools under the 'Kamarajar Kalvi Uruthi Scheme', eight grams of gold along with a silk saree for women getting married under the 'Annan Seer Scheme', and a gold ring along with a baby welcome kit for every newborn.Meanwhile, Vijay and his party have also reached out to the Christian minority vote. He also introduced himself as Joseph Vijay and gave a clear call to minority voters.Moreover, TVK has been successful in pulling crowds. In October 2024, TVK drew over 8 lakh people during its first state conference in Vikravandi. Thousands of people attend Vijay's rallies to hear him speak or catch a glimpse of him.The superstar has supporters across every class, gender, and age group in different regions of Tamil Nadu. Unlike many film stars, Vijay's supporters are organised and politically active. In the 2021 local body polls, his "fan club" candidates won 115 of the 169 seats they contested.His fan clubs have also taken on the role of foot soldiers on social media and regularly conduct blood donation camps, free medical check-ups, education support drives, and disaster relief work."TVK's social media army is the biggest in India -- not just our claim, but what others are saying after witnessing it. You are no longer just fans on social media; you are TVK's virtual warriors," he had said.Yet, Tamil Nadu's electoral history suggests that crowd mobilisation does not automatically translate into seat conversion.Booth-level organisation, caste arithmetic, and alliance mathematics continue to play a decisive role -- factors that even popular actors have struggled to master in their first electoral outings.Vijay stardom: A boon or a baneFilm stars in Tamil Nadu often enjoy near-divine status, with fans performing rituals like pouring milk over massive cut-outs ahead of film releases. Some even have temples dedicated to them across the state.Yet, this immense popularity has not always translated into electoral success.Kamal Haasan entered politics in February 2018 with the launch of Makkal Needhi Maiam, projecting it as a centrist alternative to both DMK and AIADMK. However, the party failed to win any seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. In the 2021 Tamil Nadu assembly polls, Haasan contested from Coimbatore South but lost, while the party managed just over 2.6 per cent of the total vote share.Rajinikanth, too, had sparked massive excitement by announcing plans to launch a political party and contest all 234 assembly seats. But he later reversed his decision, citing health concerns, and chose not to enter active politics.Once, leader of opposition Edappadi K Palaniswami remarked that "Vijay may be a good actor but not a leader."Similarly, the TVK founder has also been targeted over the September 27, 2025, tragedy that left 41 persons dead and many injured.CBI is also grilling Vijay over the stampede, taking up a significant chunk of his time that could otherwise have been used for pre-poll strategy or campaigning.Additionally, critics argue that Vijay lacks experience of politics. Its heavy dependence on Vijay's personal charisma raises questions about depth and scalability.The absence of governance experience and a second line of leadership adds to scepticism among voters, particularly in rural areas. Candidate selection, largely reliant on newcomers, may also affect electoral credibility. Central probing agency has questioned the TVK chief several times.Politically, the impact of the probe remains ambiguous. While rival parties have sought to frame the stampede as evidence of administrative inexperience, sections of Vijay's support base view the investigation as pressure politics -- a narrative that could either erode confidence or consolidate sympathy, depending on how the case unfolds closer to polling.How DMK and AIADMK plan to counter TVKTo counter the vote drain, both fronts have also expanded their alliances by incorporating more parties. DMK has included parties like DMDK, while the NDA has TTV Dinakaran's AMMK in its fold.Meanwhile, leaders like Seeman and the Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK) are also vying to break the ceiling of relevance.NTK's support has largely remained a vote share without securing seats. In the 2021 elections, NTK got a 6.6% vote share, more than the BJP and the Congress. The central question this time is whether that support can finally translate into seats.Voting for the 234 seats of the Tamil Nadu assembly will be held on April 23, and counting of votes is scheduled for May 4.

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