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'It all depends on the crop': Gulf crisis hits South Asia farmers

Gurdaspur, Punjab, India - Ramesh Kumar, 42, is anxiously doing the calculations for his crops this year. Standing at the edge of his wheat field in northwest Punjab's Gurdaspur, he runs through the numbers in his head, totting up fertiliser costs, expected yield, and market prices. Then he shifts to more personal concerns: School fees, household expenses, loan repayments and the money he has been saving for his daughter Varsha's wedding. "I don't know if we can afford it this year," he says. "Everything depends on the crop." The uncertainty has crept in quietly. Fertiliser, once a fairly predictable staple in farming, has become more expensive and harder to secure in time. For Kumar, it is not so much a question of cost as it is the difference between stability and strain. "If prices go up more, we will have to cut somewhere," he says. "Maybe delay the wedding. If things get worse ... even children's education becomes difficult." School fees for his eldest son, Amit, 12, are due in the coming weeks, and Kumar has been setting aside money for his younger daughter Varsha's future wedding. It's never easily affordable, even in good times. "We somehow manage," Kumar says. "But if the harvest is weak, then we have to think about what to prioritise, what to delay." For farmers like him across South Asia, the United States-Israel war on Iran - unfolding thousands of kilometres away - is not just a matter of distant geopolitics. It is shaping decisions inside their homes. At the centre of the unfolding crisis is the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow shipping lane more than 2,000km (1,240 miles) from India's northern plains. It lies between Iran and Oman, linking the Gulf and its oil producers to the open ocean and, from there, to global markets. About one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies pass through this body of water, which Iran closed down shortly after the first US-Israeli strikes on Tehran on February 28. Vast volumes of LNG, essential for manufacturing nitrogen-based fertilisers, are transported from Gulf producers to Asia via this route. Any disruption can delay shipments, push up freight and insurance costs and place a stranglehold on supply. Interruptions to the supply of fertiliser can ripple quickly, reducing crop yields, increasing costs and raising food prices. The risks are already being felt thousands of kilometres away. South Asia, home to nearly two billion people, relies heavily on fertiliser-intensive farming to produce staple crops such as wheat and rice. Over the past few decades, the increasing use of fertilisers - which can hugely boost crop yields - has played a key role in agricultural productivity across the region. The agriculture sector now employs about 46 percent of the workforce in India, about 38 percent in Pakistan, nearly 40 percent in Bangladesh, and more than 60 percent in Nepal. The degree to which countries in the region depend on the Strait of Hormuz varies, but all rely heavily on the trade in fertilisers that this shipping route facilitates. In India, the agriculture sector is worth $400bn, according to Indian government and World Bank data, and supports the livelihoods of more than half the population, either directly or indirectly. More than 100 million farming families are directly dependent on the sector. The country imports a substantial share of its fertiliser requirements and other key raw materials, particularly phosphates and potash, as well as natural gas used to manufacture fertiliser, with about 30-35 percent of these supplies moving through or originating from routes that pass via the Strait of Hormuz. In Pakistan, the agriculture sector contributes close to 20 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), according to Pakistan government estimates, and employs millions. About 20-25 percent of Pakistan's fertiliser imports, particularly DAP (diammonium phosphate), pass through the Strait of Hormuz at some point in transit. Additionally, the sector relies on domestic natural gas for the production of urea, a key nitrogen-based fertiliser and, with Gulf natural gas supplies held up in the Strait of Hormuz, the price of natural gas everywhere - even at home - is on the rise. In Bangladesh, where millions of smallholder farmers rely heavily on imported fertilisers, the agricultural sector accounts for about 12-13 percent of GDP, according to government data. The country's farming industry relies heavily on imported fertilisers to sustain crops, meaning farmers are highly exposed to international supply shocks and price swings. Furthermore, roughly 25-30 percent of Bangladesh's imported fertiliser is shipped via routes passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Nepal, where agriculture contributes about 24 percent of GDP, imports nearly all of its fertiliser needs, with about 25-30 percent of arriving via India, via the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. Overall, even minor disruption in the Gulf - let alone the complete closure of the critical Strait of Hormuz - can have dire consequences for hundreds of millions of people. The Indian government has sought to reassure farmers that supplies remain secure - for now. Prime Minister Narendra Modi told Parliament on March 23: "Adequate arrangements have been made for fertiliser supply for the summer sowing season...The government has diversified options for oil, gas and fertiliser imports... Domestic production of urea, DAP and NPK [nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium fertilisers] has been expanded... Farmers now have access to Made in India Nano Urea and are encouraged to adopt natural farming..." He added: "Under the PM Kusum scheme, more than 22 lakh (2.2 million) solar pumps have been provided, reducing dependence on diesel... I am confident that through joint efforts, India will manage these challenges effectively and continue to support our farmers." On the ground, however, confidence is low. Farmers say uncertainty is already influencing decisions. In Pampore, in the south of Indian-administered Kashmir, 53-year-old mustard farmer Ghulam Rasool says price signals travel faster than supply disruptions. "We hear about war, about shipping problems," he tells Al Jazeera. "Even before shortages happen, fertiliser becomes expensive." Rasool says farmers often respond early by cutting down on the amount of fertiliser they are using, even before actual shortages emerge. "If we use less, production will fall," he says. "But sometimes we have no choice." In Pakistan's South Punjab, wheat farmer Muneer Ahmad, 45, is preparing for the next sowing cycle. "If fertiliser becomes expensive, it will affect everyone here," he says. Government officials have expressed confidence in Pakistan's fertiliser supply amid the Middle East conflict, and claim the government is fully prepared to ensure adequate supplies during the region's peak sowing period, which typically begins between April and June, depending on the crop. According to a statement by Pakistan's federal secretary for agriculture to Al Jazeera, Federal Minister Rana Tanveer Hussain told a meeting on March 25 that the government has started proactive monitoring, is expanding domestic urea and DAP production and taking steps to ensure fertilisers reach farmers at affordable prices. However, urea production requires supplies of natural gas, meaning global energy price shocks can still translate into rising production costs. "We already have loans and expenses," Ahmad says. "If costs go up, we feel it immediately." In Rangpur, northwestern Bangladesh, farmer Mohammad Ibrahim, 41, says fertiliser supplies are already becoming unpredictable. "Sometimes it is available, sometimes not," he says. "And when it comes, the price is higher." Meanwhile, in Nepal's Gulmi district, farmer Meghnath Aryal, 38, worries that crops will be reduced if a major supply problem does appear. "If fertiliser does not arrive on time, the crop suffers," he says. "If it becomes expensive, we reduce use." Bangladesh's Agriculture Secretary Rafiqul Mohammad told Al Jazeera the government is "closely monitoring the situation" and officials have tried to reassure farmers that fertiliser supplies are sufficient for the coming months. The government has finalised plans to import about 500,000 tonnes of urea in the near term, while also exploring alternative suppliers such as China and Morocco to secure additional supplies in the longer term. There is no immediate shortage at present, the Agriculture Ministry says. Ram Krishna Shrestha, joint secretary at Nepal's Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development, told Al Jazeera that fertiliser distribution within the country remains largely stable for now, with supplies already secured for the upcoming rainy season, particularly for paddy crops such as rice. However, he warned that there may be delays to contracted shipments as a result of the Middle East crisis. "We have managed fertilisers for the upcoming season, but there could be challenges in timely supply because of the current situation," he said, pointing to global price increases and logistical disruptions, including those caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Shrestha added that as companies report shortages and rising prices in international markets, the government has asked suppliers to expedite deliveries. "Authorities are also advising farmers to increase the use of traditional nutrient sources such as farmyard manure, compost, green manuring and azolla [a natural fertiliser] to offset any potential shortfall in chemical fertilisers," he said. No immediate new fertiliser subsidies have been announced, he said, though adjustments remain under discussion as the situation evolves. The implications extend beyond individual farmers. Across South Asia, fertiliser use has been central to maintaining crop yields - and keeping large populations fed. Any reduction in availability or increase in costs can quickly lower production. That, in turn, pushes up food prices, a sensitive issue in a region where households spend a large proportion of their income on food. For governments, the challenge is complex. In the past, subsidies have kept fertilisers affordable for farmers, but this becomes a fragile balancing act if global prices rise, placing additional pressure on public finances. In India, Ramesh Kumar is already making adjustments - but he is walking a tightrope. He has decided to use less fertiliser this season, even though he knows it could reduce yields. "It is a risk," he says. "But what choice do we have?" Lower production will mean less income and harder decisions at home. "School fees have to be paid," he says. "Household expenses cannot stop." He looks across his field. "And the wedding... we will see." Ultimately, sacrifices will have to be made in his household. Across borders, the same uncertainty is unfolding. In Pakistan, Ahmad is worried about rising costs. In Bangladesh, Ibrahim is mostly concerned about the availability of fertiliser and, in Nepal, Aryal fears delays in supply. For Ramesh Kumar, the stakes are clear. "For others, this is about war," he says. "For us, it is about whether we can take care of our family."

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