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Palakkad bypoll ground report: Defections make triangular fight thrilling

"Sakhavu Pinarayikku abhivadyangal, ayiram ayiram abhivadyangal' (Salutations to Comrade Pinarayi, a thousand salutations)," cried party workers with red bandanas on their foreheads as the CM took to the makeshift stage. The CM then settled into his tried-and-tested mode of oratory, speaking slowly but coherently, occasionally looking at the paper in front of him, but mostly with his eyes toward the audience. He began listing the projects his administrations successfully implemented since 2016. "GAIL pipeline, ongoing expansion of NH projects, Edamon Kochi power highway, Kannur airport, we implemented them all. If the UDF had come to power in 2016 or 2021, you can imagine what would be the state of these projects," he said. And then midway into his speech, cheers erupted from the audience as the CPM-backed Independent candidate P Sarin climbed onto the stage. "Yes, the candidate is here," said the CM, proceeding to shake and lift his hand in a display of solidarity. After an hour-long speech consisting mainly of his regime's interventions in various sectors, the CM looked towards Sarin and told the audience, "Midumidukkan aayoru sthanarthi aanu, jayappikinam (He is a smart candidate, you must make him win)" to loud cheers from the crowd. What made the entire scene interesting is that the CM was campaigning for a man who, until just a month ago, was a Congress leader who headed its digital media cell. Sarin, a doctor and former Indian Audit and Accounts Service (IAAS) officer, played a key role in shaping the grand old party's narratives on social media which, to a large extent, focused on the alleged failures of Vijayan and his administration. But on October 16, when the Congress picked Rahul Mamkootathil as its candidate in the Palakkad bypoll ignoring Sarin, the latter rebelled publicly and a day later, walked into the arms of the LDF, which declared him as its candidate. A few kilometres away from the CM's meeting, another political volte-face was seen that evening when Sandeep G Varier, a firebrand BJP leader known for strident positions on television debates, dropped all his ideological moorings to join the Congress. Varier, 41, announced that he had left "a factory that manufactured and sold hate to join a shop that sold love", a reference to Rahul Gandhi's "mohabbat ka dukaan" remark. While BJP state president K Surendran said that Varier's departure will not have an effect on the election result, many believed the move was a loss of face for the party in the final leg of the campaign as it failed to retain a popular spokesperson at a time when Congress leaders were crossing lines to join the BJP in the rest of the country. The two key defections have, thus, in many ways amplified a thrilling triangular contest in Palakkad, which goes to the polling booth on Wednesday. A win in the constituency, which has an equal mix of urban and rural voters, is expected to hand out crucial momentum to the UDF, NDA and LDF on the path to the all-important assembly elections in 2026. Cong rides on Shafi's clout Across the constituency, there is high praise for former Congress MLA Shafi Parambil, who has nurtured the seat since he first won in 2011, and his party's hopes ride mainly on his clout. Shafi, who defeated BJP's candidate and "Metroman" E Sreedharan in 2021 by a margin of less than 3,500 votes, was picked by his party to wrest the Vadakara Lok Sabha in the elections held earlier this year. He defeated CPM's KK Shailaja by over a lakh votes. But in his win, the Palakkad seat fell vacant. In June, Shafi had told HT how he had reluctantly said yes to leaving Palakkad to fighting the parliamentary polls. He said he had tried to lobby several party leaders to get him out of the contest, but when the leadership remained firm, he acquiesced. Haneefa, who runs a vegetable stall in Yakkara area of Palakkad, said, "Shafi was a much-loved MLA who made efforts to connect with all sections of the people. Much of that charm will obviously fall on the current candidate Rahul Mamkootathil. He is also young and interacts with people very well." Rahul, the state president of the Youth Congress, is seen as the right-hand man of Shafi who was the former president of the organisation. In fact, it was seen to be Shafi's support that elevated him to the position. Throughout the campaign, Shafi was seen accompanying Rahul on door-to-door visits and introducing him to the voters. But Rahul faces a stiff challenge on two fronts - the BJP's C Krishnakumar, a son of the soil and four-time councillor, and the party has registered a phenomenal rise in vote-share from 19% in 2011 to over 35% in 2021, and the CPM's P Sarin, a known political leader bringing years of medical and civil service experience. But he wasn't perplexed. "We are a secular front and will have a commanding victory. There is no triangular contest here. We are fighting against the Communist Janata Party," said Rahul, mocking the CPM and BJP by alluding to an alleged secret deal between them. Chandran, a Congress leader who came from Thrissur to campaign for the party in Palakkad, said the party's election management has improved in leaps and bounds, a sign of the victory to come. "At the exact time when the CM was addressing a rally in Palakkad, we chose to formally induct Sandeep Varier into the party. All eyes, especially of the media, were naturally on us and we were able to control the narrative," he said. 'I did not ask for any seat or position': Sarin The ignominy of the LDF has been that it was pushed to the third position in the last two elections in Palakkad, particularly due to a resurgent BJP. While it won 10 of the 12 assembly seats in Palakkad district in 2021, it lost Mannarkkad and Palakkad to the IUML and Congress respectively. In the 2021 election, CP Pramod of CPM could garner only 25% votes in Palakkad, down from 36% in 2006 when it last won the seat. The local body representation in the constituency also hampers the CPM's possibilities - it is only in power in Kannadi panchayat while Pirayiri and Mathur are controlled by UDF and Palakkad municipality governed by BJP. However, the party is hopeful that Sarin, a known face in political circles with a great educational track record, can bypass those challenges. Instead of the official party symbol of hammer-sickle-star, he is contesting as an Independent on stethoscope symbol. Driving to a marriage function in the middle of the campaign to meet voters, Sarin told HT that the LDF has run a clean, pro-people campaign by raising the long-standing problems of the constituency and promising solutions to them. "Half of the people here are into agriculture, particularly paddy cultivation. There are seasonal problems they face for which we seek to find permanent solutions. There are also health constraints. There is a medical college but we are not able to tap its potential to the full extent. We need to improve IP/OP systems and create a township around the institution. We have to work on digitalisation of the biggest government school here," he said. When asked about the allegations levelled by Congress that he changed parties to get a bypoll ticket, Sarin replied, "In the last two to three years in Congress, I realised that the party has been hijacked by someone who is very power-hungry. That caucus has no concern for the issues people are facing. I did not ask for any seat or position. What I wanted was that Palakkad should be won by a democratic, secular front. Otherwise, BJP will find an easy walkover. The situation was that the candidate whom many did not want was promoted by a few people. That candidate was not liked by the district leadership. I chose LDF because my politicking will find space within the Left ideological base." Syed Mohammed, a CPM worker, said the party found the ideal candidate in Sarin. "We wanted someone like Shafi Parambil. He may be a Congress leader, but he had good connect here. Now, we have someone like him. I just wish we had gotten Sarin sooner," he said. For BJP, a prestige fight For the BJP, which is yet to get an MLA in the assembly's current term, Palakkad presents a good opportunity. Palakkad is one of the two municipalities the party governs in the state and a commanding presence in the Hindu-majority urban areas in the last 10 years has ensured that it stands good chances of winning. The RSS-Sangh Parivar network is also strong, lending a great deal of support to the party. The 2021 election result landed many party workers in disappointment after coming very close to victory. E Sreedharan then had led from the first round when votes from the urban areas were being counted. But as soon as the counting shifted to the rural panchayats of Kannadi and Mathur, the BJP lead fell drastically and Parambil of the Congress won eventually by 3,859 votes. C Krishnakumar, the current candidate and the party's state general secretary, said the BJP has learned a lot of lessons from that defeat. "We committed some organisational mistakes last time in the three panchayats. We have rectified them and we have expanded our organisational base there. Also, last time, Parambil won because of large-scale transfer of votes from CPM. This time, we are hoping it will not happen because CPM workers will rebel against the directions of the leadership," he said. The Palakkad contest is also a litmus test for BJP state president K Surendran to prove that the win in Thrissur Lok Sabha seat is no fluke. Surendran, who came to the helm in February 2020, and has already completed a three-year term, has picked Krishnakumar over Sobha Surendran, a firebrand leader who was also in the reckoning. If Krishnakumar faces defeat, it is likely to propel leaders like Sobha to rebel against Surendran. The BJP, which ran a well-oiled campaign from the start in Palakkad, however, faced a big blow with the defection of Sandeep Varier to the Congress just days ahead of polling. Varier has accused Krishnakumar and Surendran of ignoring and neglecting him. When his mother died two years ago, Krishnakumar didn't even bother to visit or make a phone call, he alleged. Similarly, on the election convention stage, he didn't get a chair to sit and was asked to remain off the dais. But when asked about Varier's defection, Krishnakumar said, "Leaders who are much bigger than Varier have left this party and we are still unaffected. There are many who left us but eventually came back to us saying that they are sorry. Sandeep left the party arguing over a chair to sit on the convention stage. It's better that he carries a chair to the Congress because he would not get one there. He may have to sit on the ground." Palakkad, which has 1.94 lakh voters, will go to polling booths on Wednesday. The votes will be counted on Saturday.

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