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Centre scrambles to revamp export plan as US tariffs hit Indian goods, favour ASEAN rivals

New Delhi: Faced with steep tariffs imposed by the US government, the Centre is huddling with export promotion councils and manufacturers to find a way to rework the country's exports strategy, two government officials aware of the development said. The development comes on the back of a deadlock in bilateral trade agreement (BTA) negotiations between India and the US, which the two countries have been grappling with since June, as reported by Mint on 11 June. The new plan involves diversifying into markets such as the UK, with which India recently signed a free trade agreement (FTA), and the European Union (EU), where negotiations are in the final stage and a deal could be signed before the end of the year, the officials cited above said on the condition of anonymity. India's plan would also focus on sector-specific challenges and policy measures to support exports, including exploring new markets with the help of Indian missions overseas, the officials said. The government sees strong export potential in regions like Saudi Arabia, France, Vietnam, the Netherlands, Mexico, and Ethiopia, among other countries. The review will additionally focus on India's growing competitiveness gap with Bangladesh and with ASEAN countries such as Vietnam and Indonesia, which have received significant tariff relief under the latest US executive order. While India faces a 25% duty -- just 1 percentage point down from 26% in the 2 April notification -- Vietnam's tariffs have been reduced from 46% to 20%, Indonesia's from 32% to 19%, and Bangladesh's from 37% to 20%, giving these exporters a clear edge in the US market. "Sectoral discussions will have special attention to cases like Vietnam, which imports Indian shrimp, processes it, and re-exports it to the US under a more favourable tariff, and Indonesia, which enjoys a lower duty on electronics exports," one of the officials said. "Bangladesh, a major garments exporter, now benefits from a lower 20% rate compared to the 25% levied on Indian textiles." The meetings will also examine the implications of the new US rules on transshipment, which impose a 40% punitive duty on goods rerouted to evade tariffs, this person said. Queries sent to the commerce ministry, which is spearheading the consultations with industry, remained unanswered till press time. On Thursday, the US imposed a 25% tariff on the value of all goods shipped from India that will come into effect on 7 August. To be sure, Indian goods will also attract existing MFN (most-favoured nation) duties, which average 3% but differ across sectors. Goods that are already on their way to the US and will reach ports there before 5 October will have to pay 10% duty. Further, certain sectors are exempted from the new 25% tariff, but they still have to pay the MFN duty. "As of now, exports worth around $30 billion -- comprising sectors like petrochemicals ($4 billion), pharmaceuticals ($15 billion), and electronic goods ($11 billion) -- would not be impacted, as these are exempt from the additional duty," said the first among the two officials mentioned above. The first official added that sectors that are of concern are textiles (exports worth $10.91 billion), engineering goods ($19.16 billion), agriculture ($2.53 billion), gems and jewellery ($9.94 billion), leather ($948.47 million), marine products ($2.68 billion), and plastics ($1.92 billion). Notably, India exported goods worth $86.5 billion to the US in FY25, which is 20% of the country's total merchandise exports of $433.56 billion in FY25. According to the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), a Delhi-based think tank, India's goods exports to the US may decline by 30% to $60.6 billion in FY2026. "This order is more than just a tariff measure -- it's a pressure tactic," said Ajay Srivastava, founder of GTRI, adding that the US is using access to its markets through tariffs as leverage to advance its geopolitical goals and extract one-sided trade concessions. "Countries like China have retained exemptions on critical goods such as pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and energy. But India has been singled out for harsher treatment, with no product-level exemptions whatsoever," Srivastava added. Tariffs on China have not been revised under the latest order and will continue at 30%. Vipul Shah, former chairman of the Gem & Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC), said the government should consider incentivising exporters, especially those heavily dependent on the US market, as the new tariffs are a significant blow to sectors like gems and jewellery. "Immediate support is crucial to help these industries navigate the shock," he said. However, Ashwani Mahajan of the Swadeshi Jagran Manch, which opposes a one-sided trade deal, said India should not be overly worried about higher US tariffs, as the country is not as export-dependent as China. "Work is already underway to diversify and explore new markets," he said. Mithileshwar Thakur, secretary general of the Apparel Export Promotion Council (AEPC), said the Indian apparel industry has an exposure of about 33% to the US market. He added that the FTA with the UK and ongoing FTA negotiations with the EU together can offer significant opportunities for the Indian apparel industry, and partly offset losses in US business. But, to tide over the current crisis, the government should offer incentive in the immediate term to the exporting community to stay afloat in the US market. "It is unfortunate that India has been hit with the highest tariffs. This will definitely impact our competitiveness. We are in a wait-and-watch mode to see whether prices rise in the US market and if American buyers can absorb the increased costs or not," said Pankaj Chadha, chairman of Engineering Export Promotion Council (EEPC). For engineering goods, the government is focusing on expanding exports to new target markets such as Sao Tome, Macao, Georgia, Croatia, Guinea-Bissau, Belize, Azerbaijan, Myanmar, Lithuania, Norway, Somalia, and Greece. Currently, key export destinations for Indian engineering goods include the U.S., UAE, Saudi Arabia, Germany, and Italy. The Netherlands, South Korea, Belgium, Mexico, Japan, and Kuwait are also seen as promising markets. For pharmaceuticals, new destinations identified include Montenegro, South Sudan, Chad, Comoros, Brunei, Latvia, Ireland, Sweden, Haiti, and Ethiopia, while Greece is listed as a promising market. Traditional export markets for Indian drugs are -- US, UK, Netherlands, South Africa, and Brazil. In electronics, the government has listed Sao Tome, Montenegro, Cayman Islands, St. Vincent, Mongolia, El Salvador, Turkmenistan, Honduras, Bahrain, Somalia, Puerto Rico, Vietnam, and Sweden as new export destinations. Russia, Mexico, and Turkey are marked as promising markets. For agricultural and processed food products, the focus will be on Nigeria, Switzerland, Lithuania, Slovenia, Mexico, Sweden, Portugal, Cameroon, Djibouti, Latvia, Egypt, Senegal, Canada, Argentina, and Brazil.

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