India's economic engine is revving up, but navigating the global headwinds requires sharp strategy. The rupee's recent volatility against the dollar underscores the complexities facing Indian businesses, impacting everything from import-export trade to domestic inflation. This week alone, we've seen significant shifts in the IT sector, with major players announcing restructuring and a renewed focus on AI-driven solutions. Meanwhile, the burgeoning startup ecosystem continues to attract substantial funding, despite a cautious global investor sentiment. The government's recent policy announcements on infrastructure development and digitalization are poised to further shape the business landscape, creating both opportunities and challenges for entrepreneurs and established corporations alike. Understanding these market dynamics is crucial for success in today's rapidly evolving Indian economy. Stay informed with Abtak.com for the latest insights and analysis on key sectors including finance, manufacturing, and technology – empowering your business decisions in a dynamic market. Explore the complete business news section now to stay ahead of the curve.
India's balance of payments (BoP) recorded a $13.5 billion current account surplus in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025 (Q4FY25), equivalent to 1.3 per cent of GDP. This surplus, driven by robust services exports and remittances, paints a picture of external sector strength. However, it conceals significant vulnerabilities in merchandise trade, capital inflows, and domestic demand. In fiscal year 2025 (FY25), the current account deficit (CAD) moderated to -0.6 per cent of GDP, an unusual outcome for a growing economy with strong GDP figures. This piece delves into the structural weaknesses beneath this surplus, highlighting India's over-reliance on services and remittances, declining foreign direct investment (FDI), and inconsistent policy responses that threaten long-term stability. The current account surplus is primarily fuelled by services exports and remittances. In FY25, net services exports surged by 25 per cent, reaching $188.8 billion, with $53.3 billion in Q4 alone. Business services grew by an impressive 112 per cent in Q4, while software services maintained steady growth at 12 per cent. Net transfers, predominantly remittances, rose by 16.6 per cent in FY25, with a 9.7 per cent year-on-year increase in Q4, providing stable inflows less tied to domestic GDP fluctuations. Services now account for 47 per cent of India's total exports of goods and services, underscoring a growing dependence on the global economic environment. In contrast, merchandise exports have stagnated, despite initiatives like Make in India, production-linked incentives (PLIs), vigorously pursued various free trade agreements (FTAs), and corporate tax cuts aimed at boosting manufacturing. Goods exports contribute only 53 per cent to total exports, a 35-year low, down from 67 per cent in FY13 and 81 per cent in FY96. This decline mirrors the fall in manufacturing's share of India's gross value added (GVA) to 13.9 per cent, a 66-year low, compared to a peak of 20 per cent in FY96. World Bank data reveals that 103 out of 200 countries saw an increase in manufacturing's GVA share over the past decade, while India and China experienced declines, possibly linked to China's deindustrialisation and dumping of goods in Indian markets. Intensifying global trade protectionism further threatens India's manufacturing competitiveness. India's merchandise trade deficit widened to $287 billion in FY25 (7.3 per cent of GDP), though it narrowed to $58.7 billion in Q4 from $78.7 billion in Q3. Merchandise exports contracted by 4.3 per cent in Q4, while imports grew by 1.2 per cent, leading to a 1.1 per cent contraction in overall trade. Since the post-Covid peak in FY23, exports and imports have remained flat, with compound annual growth rates (CAGR) of -0.13 per cent and -0.19 per cent, respectively. The merchandise trade-to-GDP ratio has plummeted to 28 per cent from 37 per cent in Q2FY23, and including services, the total trade-to-GDP ratio fell to 43.2 per cent in Q4 from 52.6 per cent in Q2FY23, reverting to pre-Covid levels. This decline in trade openness signals fading post-pandemic gains and raises concerns about India's integration into global markets. A potential global GDP slowdown could further erode services exports, risking a wider CAD in the future. Remittances, a key pillar of India's external balance, grew by 17 per cent in FY25. While stable and less sensitive to domestic growth, their dependence on global economic conditions exposes India to external shocks. Any disruption in global labour markets or economic slowdowns in key remittance-sending countries could destabilise these inflows, undermining the current account surplus. Net capital account inflows plummeted by 81 per cent in FY25 to $16.7 billion, driven by a 90 per cent contraction in both FDI ($0.95 billion) and foreign portfolio investment (FPI) inflows ($3.56 billion). Net FDI inflows reached their lowest level since FY01, averaging $20 billion, a 97 per cent drop from the FY21 peak of $44 billion. The FDI inflow-to-GDP ratio fell to a historic low of 0.04 per cent in FY25, compared to 3.5 per cent in FY09. Gross FDI into India rose by 13.7 per cent to $81 billion, but repatriation surged by 16 per cent to $51.5 billion, with the repatriation-to-gross FDI ratio climbing to 63.5 per cent from 22 per cent in FY15. Including repatriation of income, total repatriation reached $104 billion, exceeding gross FDI inflows. This trend reflects diminishing long-term investment opportunities for foreign firms, compounded by weak domestic demand and global trade protectionism, which have also suppressed private capital expenditure by Indian companies for over a decade. External commercial borrowing (ECB) surged fivefold year-on-year to $7.8 billion in Q4FY25, the highest since Covid peaks. Non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) accounted for 43 per cent of ECBs in FY25, despite the Reserve Bank of India's efforts to boost domestic liquidity and a weakening INR/USD. This reliance on ECBs highlights tight domestic financial conditions and underscores the economy's dependence on external financing to bridge gaps in domestic credit. India's policy response has been inconsistent, combining aggressive fiscal consolidation that suppresses demand with excessive monetary easing to encourage leveraged consumption. These measures fail to address structural weaknesses. Stagnant income growth, sluggish bank lending, and subdued private investment reflect a fragile domestic economy. With global protectionism intensifying and economic slowdowns looming, India's reliance on simplistic monetary interventions is inadequate. A more robust policy framework is needed to enhance manufacturing competitiveness, boost domestic demand, and attract sustainable foreign investment. India's $13.5 billion current account surplus in Q4FY25 masks underlying vulnerabilities in merchandise trade, capital inflows, and domestic demand. Over-reliance on services exports and remittances exposes the economy to global slowdowns, while declining FDI and rising repatriation signal waning investment appeal. Stagnant trade, weak consumption, and inconsistent policies further highlight fragility. To ensure long-term stability, India must address structural challenges, reduce dependence on external factors, and adopt a cohesive policy framework that goes beyond monetary easing. The writer is CEO & Co-Head of Equities & Head of Research, Systematix Group. Views are personal
India's manufacturing sector growth fell to a joint 11-month low, restricted by competitive conditions and inflationary pressures India's manufacturing sector growth fell to a joint 11-month low of 56.5 in November, restricted by competitive conditions and inflationary pressures amid a softer increase in factory orders, a monthly survey said on Monday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell from 57.5 in October to 56.5 in November, signalling a softer improvement in the health of the sector. However, the pace of growth remained above its long-r ...Read More >
YORK, UK - In a move to strengthen its position in the equine health market, Animalcare Group Plc (AIM: ANCR) has announced the conditional acquisition of Randlab, a prominent Australian equine veterinary business. The deal, valued at A$120 million (approximately £62.2 million), is expected to significantly boost Animalcare's earnings in 2025. The purchase agreement, involving Animalcare's newly formed subsidiary Animalcare Australia Pty Ltd, encompasses Randlab's entire issued share capital, including its New Zealand and Middle Eastern operations. The acquisition is financed through a combin ...Read More >
MUMBAI/NEW DELHI -- The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday slashed its economic growth forecast for the current financial year ending in March to 6.6% from the 7.2% projected in October after seeing "much lower than anticipated" gross domestic product expansion of 5.4% in July-September. "This decline in [the July-September quarter] growth was led mainly by a substantial deceleration in industrial growth from 7.4% in Q1 to 2.1% in Q2 due to subdued performance of manufacturing companies, contraction in mining activity and lower electricity demand," RBI Gov. Shaktikanta Das said in a televi ...Read More >
The Reserve Bank of India raised the interest rate caps on Foreign Currency Non-Resident Bank (FCNR-B) deposits to attract more capital inflows, amid pressures on the rupee. Starting December 6, banks can offer higher rates -- up to 400 basis points for 1-3 year deposits and 500 basis points for 3-5 year deposits -- until March 31, 2025. This move comes as the rupee faces volatility.The Reserve Bank of India on Friday announced a raise in the interest rate caps on the Indian diaspora's foreign cu ...Read More >
New Delhi, Dec 14 (IANS) The Unified Payments Interface (UPI) has achieved 15,547 crore transactions worth Rs 223 lakh crore from January to November this year, 'showcasing its transformative impact on financial transactions' in India, the Finance Ministry said on Saturday. The Finance Ministry also said that UPI is now accepted in seven countries including France, UAE, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Mauritius, Bhutan and Nepal. The UPI system provides a cheaper and quicker alternative to the available channels of cross-border remittances. UPI has succeeded in increasing financial inclusion and promot ...Read More >
Mumbai, Feb 10: The rupee on Monday plunged 45 paise and moved closer to the 88 per US dollar-level, weighed down by the strength of the American currency tariff concerns, but eventually settled at 87.45, up 5 paise, following RBI intervention. The American currency gained in the overseas market after US President Donald Trump's plans to impose 25 per cent tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, along with reciprocal tariffs targeting countries taxing US exports. The move has added jitters over the global trade war with China's reciprocal duties coming into effect, they said. At the interban ...Read More >
Mumbai, Jun 5 (PTI) The rupee snapped its two-day losing streak and closed 8 paise higher at 85.79 against the US dollar on Thursday, supported by positive domestic equities and a rise in Asian currencies. Forex traders said overnight softening of crude oil prices favoured the rupee. However, a strong US dollar index capped sharp gains. Besides, market participants are now keenly awaiting the outcome of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) monetary policy meeting for further cues, they said. At the interbank foreign exchange, the domestic unit witnessed a volatile trading session -- it opene ...Read More >
India's growth in gross domestic product (GDP) of 5.4% in the three months ended 30 September, or the second quarter of 2024-25, was a shocker. It undershot even the most pessimistic forecasts. It's the lowest level seen since the third quarter of 2022-23 and a sharp drop from 8.1% growth in the same period last year and also from 6.7% in the first quarter of 2024-25. The consensus expectation stood at about 6.5% and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) was expecting around 7% growth till its October policy, only to pare it to 6.8%. Growth in gross value added (GVA), which is the preferred measure ...Read More >
Vijayawada (Andhra Pradesh) [India], May 22 (ANI): Former Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister and YSRCP president YS Jagan Mohan Reddy on Thursday launched a scathing attack on the current TDP-led government in the State, accusing Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu of failing to deliver on pre-election promises and engaging in financial mismanagement. The former chief minister also took aim at what he called the "yellow media" for biased reporting in favour of the ruling party. "I am not only fighting against Chandrababu Naidu but also against the 'yellow media'," Reddy said in a press conference. ...Read More >
New Delhi: A surge in sales may be around the corner for some of India's leading packaged consumer goods makers, as cheaper inputs and lower import duties craft a perfect recipe for their next stage of growth. Companies and analysts alike said that falling prices of wheat, maize, barley and oils will help expand volumes, in a change from the recent experience of pricier products driving revenue. On 31 May, the government halved the basic customs duty on crude soybean oil, crude palm oil, and crude sunflower oil to 10%, eight months after raising it from nil to 20%. The move had prompted pack ...Read More >
[MUMBAI] The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut its key repo rate by a larger-than-expected 50 basis points on Friday, a third consecutive reduction, and slashed the reserve ratio for banks as muted inflation provided space for policymakers to focus on supporting economic growth. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), which consists of three RBI officials and three external members, cut the repo rate to 5.50 per cent. It has now cut rates by 100 basis points in 2025, starting with a quarter-point reduction in February, its first cut since May 2020. It made a similar-sized cut in April. The RBI al ...Read More >
Mumbai: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its latest Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting for FY2025-26, announced a 0.50 per cent cut in the repo rate, bringing it down to 5.5 per cent. Alongside this, key changes in CRR, inflation forecasts, and policy stance were also introduced to boost economic growth. Repo Rate Cut RBI reduced the repo rate by 0.50 per cent, bringing it down from 6.00 per cent to 5.50 per cent. This means loans may become cheaper for borrowers. CRR Cut for Liquidity RBI also reduced CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio) by 1 per cent, from 4 per cent to 3 per cent, to add mo ...Read More >
Mumbai: Reserve Bank on Friday decided to cut Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) by a huge 1 per cent, which will unlock Rs 2.5 lakh crore liquidity to the banking system for lending to productive sectors of the economy.With the reduction in four equal tranches ending November 29, 2025, the CRR would come down to 3 per cent. This means that the commercial banks would have to maintain a lower level of 3 per cent in liquid cash form with the RBI allowing them to have higher funds for lending."The Reserve Bank remains committed to provide sufficient liquidity to the banking system. To further provide dur ...Read More >
As per Moneycontrol's calculations, a 7 per cent growth in the remaining two quarters will put India's GDP at 6.5 per cent. The Indian economy would find it challenging to achieve over 7 per cent growth for the fourth consecutive year, economists said. They pointed out that the second-quarter (Q2) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, which was announced on November 29, has made the task even more daunting for the government. "A sharper than expected growth slowdown in Q2 has tilted risks to our outlook of 6.8 per cent for the current fiscal downwards," said DK Joshi, chief economist, Crisil. ...Read More >
New Delhi, Dec 3 (PTI) Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will commence customary pre-Budget consultations with various stakeholders beginning Friday. As part of the process, she will meet eminent economists on December 6 to seek their inputs regarding upcoming Budget amid seven-quarter low GDP print of 5.4 per cent recorded in the second quarter of the current financial year. It will be followed by a meeting with farmer associations and agriculture economists and stakeholders in MSME sector scheduled for December 7, sources said. Union Budget 2025-26 is likely to be tabled in Parliament o ...Read More >
Mumbai, Jun 6 (PTI) Reserve Bank on Friday retained GDP growth projections for the current fiscal at 6.5 per cent, saying the Indian economy presents a picture of strength, stability and opportunity in the backdrop of global uncertainty. The FY26 growth projections are compared with the 6.5 per cent economic growth recorded in the 2024-25 fiscal year. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has projected economic growth at 6.5 per cent for the June quarter and 6.7 per cent for the September quarter. For the December and March quarters of FY26, GDP growth is estimated at 6.6 per cent and 6.3 per cent ...Read More >
Infosys has announced an average 85% performance bonus for eligible employees in Q2 FY25, reflecting its strong financial performance. The bonus, paid to mid- and junior-level staff, will be credited with the November salaries, with individual payouts varying based on performance. This follows Infosys' impressive 4.7% rise in Q2 net profit and a revenue increase of 5.1%, leading to an upward revision of its FY25 revenue guidance. The bonus payout surpasses the previous quarter's 80%, with Infosys outpacing rivals like TCS. Employees are also awaiting salary hikes, with revisions expected from ...Read More >
Trump warns BRICS nations against replacing US dollar Dec 2 (Reuters) - A gauge of emerging market stocks rose on Monday, driven by positive manufacturing data from China and expectations of continued policy support from Beijing, while India's rupee hit a record low because of weaker-than-expected economic data. As of 0932 GMT, the MSCI's index for emerging market stocks had risen by 0.7%, on track for its biggest percentage gain in over three weeks. China's blue-chip CSI 300 climbed 0.8%, and the Shanghai Composite index jumped 1.1% after a private survey indicated that Chinese factory act ...Read More >
New Delhi, Dec 12 (PTI) Terming the 5.4 per cent GDP growth in the second quarter as a "temporary phenomena", FICCI President Harsha Vardhan Agarwal on Thursday said the industry body expects India to achieve 6.5-7 per cent economic growth in the current financial year, while projecting a pick up in private investment. In an interview to PTI, Agarwal, who is also the Vice Chairman & Managing Director of Emami Ltd, said the RBI needs to manoeuvre a "tight-rope balancing act" between inflation and economic growth, as he opined that the central bank has been doing a prudent job. Notably, the FI ...Read More >
New Delhi: Congress MP and the Leader of Opposition (LoP) Rahul Gandhi on Monday made a rare praise for the 'Make In India' program, even commending the Prime Minister Narendra Modi for bringing in the 'good idea' but then went to disapprove it by calling it 'damp squib'. Speaking in the Lok Sabha during the Motion of Thanks on the President's address, Gandhi said 'Make in India' was conceptually good but the PM failed to deliver the results despite making a good effort. "Prime Minister proposed the Make In India program. I think it was a good idea, however the result is in front of you all, ...Read More >
Markets opened on a cautiously optimistic note on Wednesday, with the Sensex and Nifty showing marginal gains, while investors closely monitored global economic indicators and upcoming domestic policy decisions. The Sensex opened higher at 81,036.22 from its previous close of 80,845.75 and is currently trading at 81,168.92 as of 9.45 am, up by 323.17 points or 0.40 per cent. Similarly, the Nifty opened at 24,488.75 compared to its previous close of 24,457.15 and is now at 24,558.20, rising by 101 ...Read More >
New Delhi, Feb 4 (PTI) Finance Secretary Tuhin Kanta Pandey on Tuesday said the government has taken measures to lower fiscal deficit and delivered a non-inflationary Budget, and hoped that the RBI's monetary policy will work in tandem with fiscal policy to support growth. He also said that although rupee depreciation increases inflation on imported inputs, it also adds to export competitiveness. Pandey said that the government has bettered its fiscal deficit projections for the current fiscal as well as the next. The fiscal deficit for FY'25 has been pegged lower at 4.8 per cent of GDP, low ...Read More >
New Delhi [India], February 5 (ANI): Bharatiya Janata Party leader Amit Malviya on Wednesday slammed Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi over his 'Make in India' criticism and blamed Congress for 'doing nothing' to prepare India's economy for future even after a decade in power during the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government from 2004-2014. Malviya said said that the Congress-led UPA continued the "legacy of policy paralysis, rampant cronyism, and complete neglect of industrial growth." "It is good that Rahul Gandhi has finally acknowledged a fact the entire nation already knew--that e ...Read More >
New Delhi [India], May 29 (ANI): After a federal court of the United States struck down a reciprocal tariff announced by US President Donald Trump, the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said that India should proceed cautiously in its ongoing Free Trade Agreement (FTA) negotiations with the US. A Manhattan-based federal court on May 28 struck down Trump's move to impose reciprocal tariffs on the trading partners of the US and ruled that he can't use emergency power to impose tariffs on foreign countries; it has to come from Congress. The order of the court determined that the tariffs, ...Read More >
Beijing: China has expressed its willingness to engage in dialogue with the United States following recent threats by former President Donald Trump to impose new tariffs on Chinese goods. The statement comes amid growing tensions between the two economic giants over trade practices, technology policies, and geopolitical issues. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Wang Wenbin, said that China was open to "constructive dialogue" with the U.S., emphasizing the importance of cooperation to ensure global economic stability. "China believes that both countries should seek common ground and manag ...Read More >
New Delhi [India], December 12 (ANI): The gross NPA ratio of public sector banks declined to 3.12 per cent in September 2024 from 4.97 per cent in March 2015 and a peak of 14.58 per cent in March 2018, the government stated on Thursday, reaffirming the robustness of the banking system. The government emphasised its proactive support for the banking ecosystem, addressing both business needs and employee welfare to ensure stability, transparency, and growth. Also Read | Places of Worship Act Validity: Supreme Court Restrains Courts in Country Not to Entertain, Pass Orders on Suits Related to R ...Read More >
Mumbai, Dec 18 (PTI) Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty stayed on the back foot for the third straight session on Wednesday as investors offloaded utility, capital goods and metal stocks amid foreign fund outflows. Besides, investor sentiment remained subdued ahead of the outcome of the US Federal Reserve's policy meeting, scheduled for Wednesday, traders said. The 30-share BSE benchmark tumbled 502.25 points or 0.62 per cent to settle at 80,182.20, taking its downtrend to the third day. During the day, it tanked 634.38 points or 0.78 per cent to 80,050.07. As many as 2,563 stocks de ...Read More >
Bengaluru: The Karnataka government on Thursday took strong action against the police officers allegedly responsible for the Bengaluru stampede, suspending several high-ranking officials, including the city's police commissioner. Addressing a press conference, Chief Minister Siddaramaiah also announced a one-man commission to probe the lapses that triggered the deadly stampede. "Cubbon Park Police Station police inspector, station house master, station house officer, ACP, Central Division DCP, cricket stadium in-charge, additional commissioner of police, commissioner of police have been susp ...Read More >
NEW DELHI: Amid concerns over the recent moderation in net foreign direct investment (FDI) into India, Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra on Friday sought to provide clarity, urging stakeholders to consider gross FDI figures instead, which present a more accurate picture of India's investment appeal. "While net FDI is important from a foreign exchange reserves management perspective, when it comes to understanding the investment landscape, gross FDI matters far more," Malhotra said while announcing the latest monetary policy decisions. Net FDI, which deducts outbound investments ...Read More >
Russian President Vladimir Putin has approved the federal budget for 2025 and the planned period of 2026-2027, with a significant 25 per cent increase in military spending compared to the previous year and a special focus on the development of transport corridors Russian President Vladimir Putin has approved the federal budget for 2025 and the planned period of 2026-2027, with a significant 25 per cent increase in military spending compared to the previous year and a special focus on the development of transport corridors, including the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) - t ...Read More >