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28
BusinessNov 29, 2024 01:34 PM

2 top stock picks from Dharmesh Shah for near term

So, we believe the seasonality flavour should work out in the month of December. Apart from that market breadth that is more important to look out for where only if you look in the current corrective phase only 12% of the stocks were trading above the day moving average of total CNX 500 and that is coming to now improving to around 33%."We expect Nifty to find the support in the range of around 23,500 to 23,700 and we should be gradually heading towards the target of 24,500," says Dharmesh Shah, ICICI Direct. How is the new series looking to you? Do you think we are all awaiting that Santa rally? Dharmesh Shah: Yes, definitely I was looking at your channel and they were presenting the data of the Santa rally for last five years. We believe market should look positive going forward. Yes, we believe what happened yesterday is more of expiry-related volatility in the market. But we believe we have seen already the thousand points rally from the low of 23,800 to 24,400. We believe this yesterday fall is more of a normal retracement of a rally which is almost thousand points. We expect Nifty to find the support in the range of around 23,500 to 23,700 and we should be gradually heading towards the target of 24,500. Coming to this perspective, we believe the overall December months looks more positive for the market. The reasoning being, yes, definitely you have done analysis for five years, we have done something of analysis for last 30 years. If you look at the market December seasonality, for last 30 years there is a strike rate of around 73% times where market has been positive in the month of December with an average return of around 3%. So, we believe the seasonality flavour should work out in the month of December. Apart from that market breadth that is more important to look out for where only if you look in the current corrective phase only 12% of the stocks were trading above the day moving average of total CNX 500 and that is coming to now improving to around 33%. So, whenever it has approached to the level below 15, we have seen the major reversal happening towards from the higher levels. So, yes, 23,300, 23,200 remains to be looks like a bottom formation for the market and we should be forming a higher bottom here and should be looking for a target of around 24,500 in the coming months, so buy the dip should be the strategy going forward. What should be the strategy when it comes to Bank Nifty? Any specific sectoral indices that we should watch out for? Dharmesh Shah: Yes, for Bank Nifty, again, if you look at the market, they have exactly found the support at 52-week moving average, which was clearly at around 49,300. We believe Bank Nifty should relatively outperform the Nifty going forward and we expect Bank Nifty to act towards 53,500 to 53,800 in the coming days. So, yes, private banks should relatively outperform the PSU banks, but we believe in the current corrective phase PSU banks like State Bank of India or talk of PNB or Canara Bank, they seem to be forming a very strong base in this current corrective phase. We believe PSU banks should do better in the coming days and one should definitely look at the largecaps like SBI, Bank of Baroda, and PNB from the current levels. What are the other picks that you have in your mind right now for all of our viewers? Dharmesh Shah: Yes, we believe infrastructure as a space looks positive because if you look at the government spending in the first half we hardly see any spending, almost around 35% of the total budgeted allocated of around 11 lakh crore. We believe the second half should be better in terms of government spending and that should augur well for overall infrastructure space. So, yes, one is the government spending. Second, we expect the interest rate cut to be happen by February that augurs well for infrastructure space. So, infrastructure as a space, we remain to be positive from the current levels. Now, coming to our top pick, L&T remains to be our top pick. Again, L&T stock seems to be reverting from the lower band of rising channel which was placed, if it joins the lows of 2020, 22, and 24, exactly stock has found support near those levels and it also coincides with the 200-day moving average. We believe L&T should relatively outperform going forward and we are looking for a target of around 4,016, keeping a stop loss of 3,500. So, L&T is one. Again, a proxy play to infrastructure is Ramco Cements. Cement space as a whole looks positive and we believe Ramco, again a strong base formation at 52-EMA and even in this current corrective phase if you look Ramco has been relatively outperforming overall cement space. So, we believe Ramco is one where we look for a target of around 1,070, keeping a stop loss of around 950. So, Ramco Cements, L&T remains to be our top pick in the infrastructure space.

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23
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18
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