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Ukraine War: Russia Expands Nuclear Umbrella To CSTO Allies Under Revised Nuke Doctrine: Shoigu

Russia's nuclear doctrine has been updated to affirm its nuclear umbrella for primarily the six member states of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), including an explicit focus on Belarus. The announcement followed a joint meeting of the CSTO's Council of Foreign Ministers, Council of Defense Ministers, and Committee of Security Council Secretaries held in Astana. According to the state news agency TASS, Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu highlighted the revisions, emphasizing Moscow's commitment to protecting its allies under the CSTO. The CSTO, formed in 2002, is a Russia-led security bloc that includes Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Belarus, and Russia. The treaty binds members to collective defense, akin to NATO's principle of mutual aid during an attack. However, Armenia has announced to quit the security alliance as the group failed to come to its aid during the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. While Armenia has not formally left the security alliance, it is not participating in its activities. Belarus, as part of the Union State with Russia, enjoys an even closer alliance under a treaty that establishes comprehensive cooperation between the two nations. Shoigu clarified that while the previous nuclear doctrine also included protection for CSTO allies, the updated version explicitly outlines criteria for nuclear weapons use in the event of aggression against Belarus using conventional arms or threats to the nation's existence. This specificity marks the first time Belarus has been particularly named in Russia's nuclear doctrine, despite its implicit coverage under the CSTO for decades. "It has a separate additional provision, which is quite important, in my view, and applies to Belarus," Shoigu said. Russian President Vladimir Putin has also previously reiterated this stance, declaring that Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons to defend Belarus as part of the Union State. Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko, a close ally of Moscow, earlier expressed approval of Belarus's inclusion under Russia's nuclear umbrella and described it as a move that was "long overdue." The bolstering of ties between Moscow and Minsk has been evident this year, with Russia deploying tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus. This move symbolizes their increasingly intertwined military strategies amid heightened regional tensions. On the other hand, the White House National Security Council stated that Russia's decision to lower its threshold for nuclear retaliation was not unexpected and did not warrant any adjustments to the United States' nuclear posture. In a separate statement at the CSTO session on November 28, Putin highlighted the destructive potential of "Oreshnik" (Hazel) missiles, suggesting that a coordinated strike using these weapons could rival the impact of nuclear arms. "In the opinion of military and technical experts, in the event of a massive, group strike of these missiles, that is, several missiles at once, in a cluster, their single strike will be comparable to the use of nuclear weapons. Even though, certainly, Oreshnik is not a weapon of mass destruction," the Russian President said. The Russian leader lauded the Oreshnik as unparalleled globally and asserted that no comparable technology exists. "There are no analogs of the Oreshnik in the world, and I believe such analogs will not appear anytime soon," he said. Putin also issued a strong warning regarding potential targets in Ukraine, revealing that decision-making centers in Kyiv are under consideration for destruction by the Oreshnik missile system. "The Ministry of Defense and the General Staff are currently identifying targets within Ukraine. These may include military facilities, defense industry enterprises, or key decision-making centers in Kyiv," he cautioned. He added that the choice of targets and the means of destruction would depend on the nature of the threat to Russia. Putin further announced that the serial production of the Oreshnik system had commenced, signaling an escalation in its operational readiness. On November 21, Oreshnik missiles were reportedly tested under combat conditions, a move Putin suggested could be repeated. "We will select our response depending on the nature of the threats posed to the Russian Federation and, if necessary, continue to test the Hazel in live combat scenarios," he remarked. Putin also highlighted Russia's extensive arsenal of hypersonic systems, describing them as "ready-to-use" and noting their deployment in recent retaliatory strikes. He claimed that over two days, Russia launched 100 missiles of various types and 466 drones targeting Ukrainian positions in response to strikes carried out with US-supplied weapons. Hinting at further advancements, Putin suggested that Russia may soon introduce additional missile systems.

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