India's economic engine is revving up, but navigating the global headwinds requires sharp strategy. The rupee's recent volatility against the dollar underscores the complexities facing Indian businesses, impacting everything from import-export trade to domestic inflation. This week alone, we've seen significant shifts in the IT sector, with major players announcing restructuring and a renewed focus on AI-driven solutions. Meanwhile, the burgeoning startup ecosystem continues to attract substantial funding, despite a cautious global investor sentiment. The government's recent policy announcements on infrastructure development and digitalization are poised to further shape the business landscape, creating both opportunities and challenges for entrepreneurs and established corporations alike. Understanding these market dynamics is crucial for success in today's rapidly evolving Indian economy. Stay informed with Abtak.com for the latest insights and analysis on key sectors including finance, manufacturing, and technology – empowering your business decisions in a dynamic market. Explore the complete business news section now to stay ahead of the curve.
CHENNAI: The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), led by Governor Sanjay Malhotra, concludes its three-day meeting today (June 6, 2025). Amid escalating global trade tensions stemming from new US tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump, expectations are mounting for an aggressive monetary easing by the RBI. Markets and analysts widely anticipate a 25 basis points (bps) cut, with some forecasting a jumbo 50 bps reduction to sustain domestic growth momentum and offset external headwinds. With recent cuts February and April this year by 25 bps each, the current REPO rate stands at 6%. These cuts have already prompted commercial banks to pass on benefits through reductions in External Benchmark-based Lending Rates (EBLRs) and Marginal Cost of Funds-based Lending Rates (MCLR), indicating effective policy transmission so far. Trade Tensions: President Trump's renewed tariff actions have stoked fears of a global economic slowdown, weakening investor sentiment and external demand for Indian exports. Oil Prices & Global Demand: Volatility in crude oil markets due to geopolitical tensions may strain India's import bill and inflationary trajectory. 2. Domestic Growth Concerns India's Q1 FY26 GDP growth showed signs of deceleration due to weaker exports and subdued private consumption. Industrial production has softened, and the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) readings for both manufacturing and services have moderated slightly. 3. Benign Inflation Outlook Headline CPI inflation remains within the RBI's medium-term target range of 4%. Food inflation, although showing seasonal upticks, is largely under control. Core inflation remains muted due to weak demand. 4. Fiscal Policy Stance The Union Government's fiscal policy continues to be growth-supportive, but with limited space for large-scale stimulus, pressure shifts to the RBI for counter-cyclical support. Market Expectations The market expects another 25 bps cut as the most likely outcome the latest MPC meeting, aligning with RBI's cautious and data-dependent approach. However, there is a strong possibility of 50 bps cut if the RBI opts for preemptive, front-loaded easing to bolster sentiment and activity. Although unlikely, but not off the table, RBI may even opt for a status quo if the it views current liquidity and rate settings as adequate. Implications of a Rate Cut In the current scenario the impact of 25 bps cut will result in the rate of 5.75%, which can provide moderate boost to liquidity and credit demand The market watchers observe that the June 2025 MPC meeting is likely to result in at least a 25 bps repo rate cut, with a 50 bps cut a close contender given the increasing external risks and domestic growth slowdown. The decision will reflect the RBI's assessment of global trade dynamics, domestic inflation stability, and the effectiveness of past transmission. A forward-looking and accommodative stance is expected to continue, with future action contingent on evolving macroeconomic indicators and external shocks, said a banking sector analyst.
nion Minister of State for Labour and Employment Shobha Karandlaje cited statistics in the Lok Sabha on Monday to show that youth unemployment rates in India were lower than global levels. The minister cited a report by the International Labour Organisation's (ILO) Institute for Human Development (IHD) which states that the worldwide youth unemployment rate was 15.6 per cent in 2021. Further, as per World Employment and Social Outlook Trends, 2024 by ILO, globally, in 2023, the youth unemployment rate was 13.3 per cent. On the other hand, the latest annual Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS ...Read More >
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump said on Monday that on his first day in office he would impose a 25% tariff on all products from Mexico and Canada, and an additional 10% tariff on goods from China, citing concerns over illegal immigration and the trade of illicit drugs. "On January 20th, as one of my many first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% Tariff on ALL products coming into the United States, and its ridiculous Open Borders," Trump said in a post on Truth Social. Trump said the tariffs would remain in place until the two countries ...Read More >
India's manufacturing sector growth fell to a joint 11-month low, restricted by competitive conditions and inflationary pressures India's manufacturing sector growth fell to a joint 11-month low of 56.5 in November, restricted by competitive conditions and inflationary pressures amid a softer increase in factory orders, a monthly survey said on Monday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell from 57.5 in October to 56.5 in November, signalling a softer improvement in the health of the sector. However, the pace of growth remained above its long-r ...Read More >
MUMBAI/NEW DELHI -- The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday slashed its economic growth forecast for the current financial year ending in March to 6.6% from the 7.2% projected in October after seeing "much lower than anticipated" gross domestic product expansion of 5.4% in July-September. "This decline in [the July-September quarter] growth was led mainly by a substantial deceleration in industrial growth from 7.4% in Q1 to 2.1% in Q2 due to subdued performance of manufacturing companies, contraction in mining activity and lower electricity demand," RBI Gov. Shaktikanta Das said in a televi ...Read More >
The Reserve Bank of India raised the interest rate caps on Foreign Currency Non-Resident Bank (FCNR-B) deposits to attract more capital inflows, amid pressures on the rupee. Starting December 6, banks can offer higher rates -- up to 400 basis points for 1-3 year deposits and 500 basis points for 3-5 year deposits -- until March 31, 2025. This move comes as the rupee faces volatility.The Reserve Bank of India on Friday announced a raise in the interest rate caps on the Indian diaspora's foreign cu ...Read More >
The chip makers around the world felt the relief of a rumor suggesting that the sales curb to China could be less severe than previously expected. But the news didn't necessarily translate in a strong rally. ASML (NASDAQ:ASML) - Europe's biggest chip equipment maker that predicted a 30% fall to its Chinese revenue next year - closed 0.22% lower yesterday, while Tokyo Electron - which was up by more than 6% yesterday - couldn't extend gains at today's session. With US markets paused for the Thanksgiving break, France was at the heart of the attention yesterday. The political drama, there, only ...Read More >
Mumbai, December 4: The domestic benchmark equity indices closed in green on Wednesday as buying was seen in PSU bank and realty sectors. The investors are keenly watching the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting which will announce its decision around the repo rate on Friday. Banking stocks rose amid volatile sessions in the market due to the possibility of Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) cut by the central bank. Sensex settled at 80,956.3, higher by 110.58 points, or 0.14 per cent, while the Nifty ended at 24,467.45, up by 10.30 points, or 0.04 per cent. Stock Mark ...Read More >
India's growth in gross domestic product (GDP) of 5.4% in the three months ended 30 September, or the second quarter of 2024-25, was a shocker. It undershot even the most pessimistic forecasts. It's the lowest level seen since the third quarter of 2022-23 and a sharp drop from 8.1% growth in the same period last year and also from 6.7% in the first quarter of 2024-25. The consensus expectation stood at about 6.5% and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) was expecting around 7% growth till its October policy, only to pare it to 6.8%. Growth in gross value added (GVA), which is the preferred measure ...Read More >
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At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 84.49 against the greenback, registering a fall of 2 paise over its previous close The rupee fell 2 paise to trade at 84.49 against the U.S. dollar in early trade on Friday (November 29, 2024) dragged down by significant foreign fund outflows and month-end dollar demand from importers. Forex traders said the rupee remains in a weakening mode due to dollar demand from importers and foreign banks. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 84.49 against the greenback, registering a fall of 2 paise over its previous close. On ...Read More >
JAKARTA (Reuters) - Indonesia and Canada on Monday signed a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) that aims to strengthen economic ties between the two G20 members, three years after negotiations began. The agreement will take effect in 2026 and was signed in Jakarta by trade ministers of both countries. Indonesia's trade minister, Budi Santoso, said Indonesia appreciated Canada's support for its plan to prioritise its critical minerals sector, which was vital for its sustainable growth. "Together, we advance sustainable critical mineral management, supporting Indonesia's net ...Read More >
As per Moneycontrol's calculations, a 7 per cent growth in the remaining two quarters will put India's GDP at 6.5 per cent. The Indian economy would find it challenging to achieve over 7 per cent growth for the fourth consecutive year, economists said. They pointed out that the second-quarter (Q2) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, which was announced on November 29, has made the task even more daunting for the government. "A sharper than expected growth slowdown in Q2 has tilted risks to our outlook of 6.8 per cent for the current fiscal downwards," said DK Joshi, chief economist, Crisil. ...Read More >
FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Import tariffs expected to be implemented by the administration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump could lower economic growth and inflation in the 20 nations sharing the euro, European Central Bank board member Piero Cipollone said on Tuesday. Most economists agree that the possible tariffs would impact growth, though views diverge on the effect on consumer prices. Some argue the U.S. trade barriers will push up the value of the dollar, making imports of key commodities more expensive, while likely retaliation from Europe will also raise costs. Cipollone, speaking i ...Read More >
Trump warns BRICS nations against replacing US dollar Dec 2 (Reuters) - A gauge of emerging market stocks rose on Monday, driven by positive manufacturing data from China and expectations of continued policy support from Beijing, while India's rupee hit a record low because of weaker-than-expected economic data. As of 0932 GMT, the MSCI's index for emerging market stocks had risen by 0.7%, on track for its biggest percentage gain in over three weeks. China's blue-chip CSI 300 climbed 0.8%, and the Shanghai Composite index jumped 1.1% after a private survey indicated that Chinese factory act ...Read More >
The U.S. dollar continued its strong run on Monday, bolstered by soaring Treasury yields and expectations of limited Federal Reserve rate cuts. Meanwhile, the yen steadied ahead of a key speech by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, where he may hint at a possible rate hike in December, with markets pricing a 55% chance of such a move. Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato's warning on yen intervention caused a temporary pullback, while the dollar index touched a one-year high of 107.07. Analysts forecast further dollar gains as U.S. economic policies and performance outshine global peers. K ...Read More >
Euro zone government bond yields increased slightly as investors await upcoming inflation data that may influence the European Central Bank's policy direction. Concerns over potential tariff hikes from the U.S. could further impact ECB strategies. Germany's bond yields and political tensions in France also add to the economic uncertainties. On Tuesday, euro zone government bond yields saw a minor increase after hitting multi-week lows in the previous session. Investors are keenly awaiting inflation data later this week that could provide insight into the European Central Bank's potential poli ...Read More >
China and Hong Kong stock markets are experiencing a downturn due to rising concerns over the U.S.-China trade war, particularly regarding proposed tariffs and chip sales restrictions. The CSI300 and Shanghai Composite indexes fell, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index dropped 1.32%. Investors are wary of potential new restrictions on semiconductor and AI chip exports to China, further exacerbating market uncertainty. The automotive sector, led by BYD, also suffered from intense price competition among Chinese carmakers. Investor sentiment remains cautious, reflecting fears of escalating trade te ...Read More >
Key U.S. data this week includes the job openings due later in the day, the ADP employment report on Wednesday and the payrolls report on Friday. "The next big thing is going to be the payrolls on Friday night because it'll tell us whether the Fed is essentially going to green-light the interest rate cut in a couple of weeks," said Kyle Rodda, financial market analyst at Capital.com. Fed Governor Christopher Waller on Monday said with inflation still forecast to fall to 2%, he is inclined "at present" to support another rate cut later this month. The comments boosted expectations of a rate ...Read More >
The Chinese yuan was also facing its own challenges from the growing threat of more U.S. tariffs on China, pushing it down to a 13-month trough. Japan's tech-heavy Nikkei jumped 1.6% as of 0200 GMT, and South Korea's KOSPI advanced 1.7%. Taiwanese shares gained 1.1%. Australia's stocks benchmark rose 0.7% and reached a fresh all-time high. However, Chinese stocks were under pressure, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng edging slightly lower and mainland blue chips falling 0.3%. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares added 0.7%. Both S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures were flat after the cash indexes ...Read More >
Since our last publication, the higher risk-sensitive EUR/CHF cross pair has wobbled as it grappled with the Eurozone's economic weakness and a looming unfavorable external trade environment due to further global supply chain disruptions due to incoming US President-elect Trump's 10% to 20% tariffs threat on other countries' exports to the US, inclusive of the Eurozone. The EUR/CHF inched lower in the week of 18 November (ex-post US Presidential election outcome on 6 November) and retested a key intermediate support of 0.9255, a key swing low made almost a year ago on 29 December 2023. Fig 1 ...Read More >
New Delhi [India], December 3 (ANI): Oilfields (Regulation and Development) Amendment Bill, 2024 to expand the definition of mineral oils and include petroleum and natural gas passed in the Rajya Sabha on Tuesday. The bill was introduced by Union petroleum and natural gas minister Hardeep Singh Puri for consideration and passing. The Bill will regulate the exploration and extraction of natural gas and petroleum. The amended bill expands the definition of mineral oils to include petroleum and natural gas in it. Also Read | Pune: Doctors Perform Rare Laser Surgery on Woman Pregnant With Monoam ...Read More >
Markets opened on a cautiously optimistic note on Wednesday, with the Sensex and Nifty showing marginal gains, while investors closely monitored global economic indicators and upcoming domestic policy decisions. The Sensex opened higher at 81,036.22 from its previous close of 80,845.75 and is currently trading at 81,168.92 as of 9.45 am, up by 323.17 points or 0.40 per cent. Similarly, the Nifty opened at 24,488.75 compared to its previous close of 24,457.15 and is now at 24,558.20, rising by 101 ...Read More >
Still, the ongoing U.N. climate talks have thrown a spotlight on their efforts to tackle global warming. While the COP29 summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, is tasked with agreeing a goal to mobilize hundreds of billions of dollars for climate, leaders of the Group of 20 major economies half a world away in Rio are holding the purse strings. G20 countries account for 85% of the world's economy and are the largest contributors to multilateral development banks helping to steer climate finance. "The spotlight is naturally on the G20. They account for 80 percent of global emissions," U.N. Secretary Ge ...Read More >
Beijing: China has expressed its willingness to engage in dialogue with the United States following recent threats by former President Donald Trump to impose new tariffs on Chinese goods. The statement comes amid growing tensions between the two economic giants over trade practices, technology policies, and geopolitical issues. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Wang Wenbin, said that China was open to "constructive dialogue" with the U.S., emphasizing the importance of cooperation to ensure global economic stability. "China believes that both countries should seek common ground and manag ...Read More >
TOI correspondent from Washington: In a warning shot that echoed across major world capitals and business majors on Tuesday, US President-elect Donald Trump said he will issue executive orders on day one of his presidency imposing new tariffs on all imported goods from China, Mexico and Canada, Washington's three largest trading partners, to stop the "invasion" of illegal migrants and drugs into the United States. In a post on his Truth Social platform, Trump put the onus of containing illegal border crossings squarely on two immediate neighbors on its southern and northern borders, saying "b ...Read More >
The Indian government has announced a 375km rail network expansion, aimed at enhancing economic growth and connectivity in North Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh. With a total cost of approximately Rs79.27bn ($1.05bn), these projects are aimed to be completed within four years. Union Minister of Railways, Ashwini Vaishnaw, detailed the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs' approval of three railway infrastructure projects. The projects include the Jalgaon-Manmad fourth line (160 km), Bhusawal-Khandwa third and fourth lines (131km), and the Prayagraj (Iradatganj)-Manikpur thir ...Read More >
Cybercrime is quickly increasing in India, with reports surfacing daily about victims losing large sums of money to scammers. These scammers often use tactics like threatening a "digital arrest" to instill fear and pressure individuals into transferring money. They typically operate from foreign countries to evade capture by law enforcement. The Indian government, including Prime Minister Modi, is actively raising awareness about these scams. Recently, the Department of Telecommunications (DoT) issued a warning to the public regarding international fraud calls. They advised people to be caut ...Read More >
In the Indo-Pacific region, if one development would prove to be a landmark event in the region's modern history, it would be the signing of the Treaty of Comprehensive Partnership between North Korea and Russia in June 2024. The partnership has paved the way for strengthening bilateral ties between Moscow and Pyongyang and marked the onset of the global order transition, which was already underway. The institutionalization of the U.S., South Korea, and Japan's trilateral security cooperation has also given Russia and North Korea another strategic reason to collaborate. Therefore, with the geo ...Read More >
Trump's pressure on countries to remain tied to a US-dollar-based financial system could backfire, with potential increased motivation for BRICS to create alternatives. While the dollar's dominance persists due to existing economic strengths, recent global currency agreements indicate a cautious shift away from reliance on the greenback.Donald Trump's pressure on countries around the world to stay anchored to a US-dollar-based financial system is a tactic that risks backfiring, market watchers say. Dollar dominance looks set to continue for the foreseeable future and emerging nations' idea of ...Read More >
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